$70 COLA vs Part B: The Percent Can Win and the Check Lose

Will a 2027 Social Security COLA actually raise what hits your bank account — or will Medicare take it first?

A bigger COLA percentage is not the same as more spending money. This panel separates three calculations that get mashed into one headline: the COLA percent, the dollar change in your benefit, and the dollar change in Part B, IRMAA, and the rest of your medical costs.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
• Why “COLA beat Medicare” is a percentage comparison, not a paycheck comparison
• How to turn a COLA % into dollars on your current gross benefit
• 2026 facts: 2.8% COLA; standard Part B $202.90, up $17.90 from $185.00
• 2027 planning range: mid-3% COLA estimates until the official announcement; Trustees Part B baseline near $209.50 vs private forecasts near $216–$219
• Who can still lose if the percentage “wins”: IRMAA, new Part B enrollees, late-enrollment penalties, rising copays and drug tiers
• 2026 IRMAA starts above $109,000 single / $218,000 joint (2024 MAGI); 2027 IRMAA uses your 2025 return
• What hold harmless does — and who it does not protect
• The real fall calendar, in order

KEY DATES (2026)
• Annual Notice of Change (Advantage / Part D): by September 30
• Official 2027 COLA: expected October 14 (after September CPI-W)
• Medicare Open Enrollment: October 15 – December 7
• CMS 2027 Part B / IRMAA: typically November
• Personalized SSA COLA notice: often December
• New benefit and new withholding: January 2027 checks

WORKSHEET
Write four lines before you budget the raise: gross Social Security, Part B withheld, IRMAA if any, other medical premiums. Multiply your gross by the official COLA. Subtract the Part B increase. Treat IRMAA as a third column.

CHAPTERS
0:00 - The headline trap: % vs dollars
1:56 - 2026 math: 2.8% vs $202.90 Part B
2:47 - 2027 projections vs October 14
3:49 - Who still loses if the COLA “wins”
5:02 - IRMAA cliffs and the two-year lookback
5:45 - Why you can feel poorer anyway
5:57 - Two formulas, two clocks
7:48 - Fall calendar: Sept 30 to January
8:44 - Build a four-line baseline
9:27 - What to do before you budget the raise

EDUCATION ONLY
General education for seniors and near-retirees. Not tax, legal, or official SSA/CMS guidance. COLA and premium figures are projections until published. Confirm on ssa.gov and medicare.gov.

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